Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Godspeed, President Obama

I voted for Barak Obama with some trepidation 77 days ago but in those days I have become a believer. There is no one--living or from history--that I would rather see taking that oath.

I do worry that he will make errors with the economy, in particular emulating and repeating the errors of FDR and creating updated versions of depression era policy. The crisis we are facing is worse than most people realize. Credit default swaps on U.S. Treasury securities have risen from $8 to $60 in the past few months--that is default insurance on $10k for 5 years. Many sovereigns are on the verge of default, Argentina, Venezuela and Iceland especially. And one big default would begin a cascade.

Drug violence in Mexican border towns is approaching civil war intensity and I fear that the Obama administration will be too focused on the economy and the Middle East conundrum to pay proper attention to the borderland.

But he's my President and I haven't felt this good about America's prospects since January 1993, in spite of all the problems we face.

No comments: