Friday, January 09, 2009

Iceberg, dead ahead

The more I add up these numbers on the back of an old grubby envelope the more I become convinced that we are headed for a catastrophe.

The total of all the U.S. treasury securities in foreign hands is three trillion dollars and has grown 30% in just the past year. The total of all the bailouts including the upcoming municipal and state handouts may exceed ten trillion dollars. The outstanding national debt is over 10 trillion dollars. The total of all U.S. money (M2) is almost eight trillion dollars.

Foreign governments are reeling and have slowed their purchase of U.S. debt in order to bolster their own currency. When they begin redeeming their treasury securities will people begin dumping dollars? Will that be a signal?